Big Blue Nation On This Start of NCAA Tournament Week

A dreary day of relentless rain sets the perfect mood for how Big Blue Nation feels on this start of NCAA Tournament week. Instead of projecting how the Cats can make a Final Four run, Cat fans are left to lament an NIT road trip to play Robert Morris.

How will the Cats do in this tournament? It depends on how they approach it. If you play for Kentucky and there’s a title of some kind to play for, then you should want to win it—and you should want to do all you can to erase the last image your fans have of you, in that loss to Vanderbilt.

But here’s another reason—NBA scouts and GMs will be watching, to see how you respond to this particular instance of adversity, when there are no more second chances to play your way into the NCAA field. These players will someday be playing basketball as a profession, if not in the NBA then in the D-league or overseas and those teams will expect professionalism, which means you run all the way to the finish, whether you can win the race or not.

Had Marquis Teague chosen to stay for one more year (something I would imagine seemed quite possible when he was signed), then Kentucky would likely be in a better place. I think Ryan Harrow is a scoring point guard but he’s not one that excels yet at making those around him better. That’s what this team needed, given it was Calipari’s youngest team of his four at UK, and as hard as Harrow tried, he just couldn’t fill that role—so when his shots weren’t falling, Kentucky tended to struggle.

Sometimes the pieces just don’t quite fit together as well as you would like and that’s how you end up in the NIT. This time next year, we’ll be back in the mode of plotting a course to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament, but for now, this team should focus on finishing the season with a trip to the NIT’s Final Four in New York.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

The Bubble Has Not Popped Yet For the Big Blue

In an absolute must-win game against ninth-ranked Florida, Kentucky answered the call. Are they “in” the NCAA Tournament? Most of the college basketball talking heads say “yes”—for now. But if the Cats lose their first SEC Tournament game Friday night—against either Vandy or Arkansas—then “Selection Sunday” will be filled with suspense for UK and its fans.

Chances are that one win will assure them of a spot and two might get them out of the dreaded “play-in game” next Tuesday or Wednesday.

And if the Kentucky defense that we saw in the last seven-and-a-half minutes of that Florida win keeps showing up, UK won’t have to worry itself with “bubble” talk.

I think horse racing can provide some good analogies for other sports, and the folks who follow the ponies will tell you if a horse suddenly does something it hasn’t done before (a frontrunner loses a lead but then battles back to win maybe), then that is often a sign of an improved horse.

The big difference I saw in Kentucky in those final minutes was how it guarded the Gators, who are the SEC’s most efficient offensive team and the league-leader in field goal percentage (49 percent per game and 40 percent on threes).

UK and Florida both rank at the top of the SEC in defensive field goal percentage, but the “eye test” tells you that the Wildcats have had trouble all season long in containing dribble penetration. When there’s not a shot blocker in the paint, it becomes drive-thru banking time for the opponents, and that’s reflected in a rather obscure stat.

While both the Cats and Gators rank in the top 10 nationally in terms of defense on shots inside the three-point line (42 percent going into last Saturday’s game), if you take out the shots that were not blocked, suddenly Kentucky drops to 50^th while Florida stays in the top 10.

Well, in those final eight minutes, Kentucky forced the Gators into 11 missed shots and none of them were the results of blocks—because of Willie Cauley-Stein’s foul trouble. Kentucky was switching defenders on Florida’s patented pick-and-roll plays and during that homestretch run, there was a possession in which Alex Poythress was matched up on a driving Scottie Wilbekin. All season long, that kind of mismatch has resulted in baskets and /or fouls, but Poythress played it perfectly, misdirecting Wilbekin into a missed shot.

That’s one example of the kind of defense that happened on possession after possession in those final minutes. And it’s why Kentucky won a game for the first time all season when they failed to shoot better than 40 percent from the field. And it was just the second time in eight tries that UK won a game in which it failed to crack the 70-point barrier.

You have to win those kinds of games in the postseason and if this team can sustain that kind of defensive effort, it has a chance to make a little noise in March.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

Do the Cats Have the Fight to Get to the NCAA Tournament?

On one hand, losing at Arkansas is not a major negative for the Kentucky basketball team. All but one team (Syracuse) that came to Bud Walton Arena this season have left with a loss. But, on the other hand, it was disappointing to see the way the Wildcats lost this one.

That lack of fight, competitiveness, “want to”, or whatever else you want to call it, is a problem that we thought the Wildcats might have put behind them with the hard-fought win over Missouri. Willie Cauley-Stein admitted as much after the game, saying he thought this kind of performance was behind them. But instead, Kentucky played tentatively against the Hogs’ swarming, physical defense and they allowed Arkansas to grab 20 offensive rebounds.

The fact that the Hogs rank near the bottom in the SEC in offensive rebounding percentage and the fact that Kentucky just out-rebounded one of the nation’s best board teams in Missouri a week earlier is a perfect illustration of the point that this team has the power to correct some of its flaws by merely embracing the battle, night in and night out. Enjoying “the path as much as the prize” is how Calipari put it Saturday in our postgame radio interview.

Now, Kentucky is back on the bubble. I think wins at Georgia on Thursday and against Florida at Rupp this Saturday would get UK into the NCAA Tourney, but anything short of that will mean the Cats will face big-time pressure in the SEC Tournament to get to the final day, or perhaps to have to win it to get in.

Thursday’s game provides UK with a chance to show that this team has indeed improved and that the Arkansas game was simply the one step-back that will follow a two-step forward move for a young team.

However, making that statement would really do more for this group’s confidence than impressing the NCAA selection committee. Saturday’s game against the Gators is the one that could turn those heads.

The Kentucky team that beat Ole Miss and Missouri and played Louisville to a three-point game on the road is a team that truly deserves to be in the NCAA Tournament. But the Wildcats must take this week to show that’s who they really are.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

 

Calipari Manages the Psychological Aspect of His Team, and Wins

Dodgeball. Who would have guessed a game of dodgeball was the key to getting Kentucky’s season back on track.

John Calipari gets the most praise for his recruiting prowess, but he doesn’t get enough kudos for his ability to manage the psychological component of his leadership. He and his staff correctly read their young team in its need for a pressure release, and judging from their sincere comments on the impact of the dodgeball game, it’s clear that the coaches gave them what they needed.

I saw practice Tuesday (before the dodgeball idea) and again on Friday, and the latter one was as good as the former was bad. It was a team that felt good about itself again, and you saw that renewed confidence on the court in the wins over Vandy and Missouri that put the Wildcats back on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. If you’ve ever played any sport, you realize how important your own personal mindset is to your success, and Calipari was right to see that getting that part of the equation right was the most important thing for this team.

X-and-O changes were made, too, in both the offensive and defensive approaches without Nerlens Noel. This team has some flaws defensively that are hard, if not impossible, to fix. So, you can try to disguise them, but ultimately, UK needed to find a way to improve on offense if it was going to regress on defense (post-Noel). And opening up the court looks like the ticket to do that. Archie Goodwin, Ryan Harrow and even Alex Poythress found new lanes to attack the rim and suddenly Kentucky had the ability to create some of the mismatches that other teams were finding on UK’s defensive end of the court.

I think going 2-2 in the final four games might be enough to get UK into the NCAA Tourney field—but after what I saw last week, I think they’re going to do better than 2-2.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

This Ain’t Boxing, So Nobody’s Going to Stop the Fight

The Kentucky basketball players learned the hard way on Saturday that their opponents now see the blood in the water, and they are going to come at the Cats with a combination of confidence and revenge for past defeats.

Defense and rebounding are aspects of basketball that depend as much or more on will as they do skill. Tennessee attacked the rim at will against UK’s defense and the Vols, who were out-rebounded by Kentucky in Lexington, whipped UK by 18. Consider this stat—Tennessee missed only 21 shots for the day and had 15 offensive rebounds, so they recaptured almost 75 percent of their misses.

What can turn this thing around? Guard play. Think of when Kentucky looked its best—the second halves at Louisville and Auburn, plus the Ole Miss game—and the common denominator was outstanding play from Archie Goodwin and Ryan Harrow. Last week, Harrow failed to score in either game and over the last five games, Goodwin—UK’s leading scorer for the season—has averaged less than 10 points per game.

Once Nerlens Noel went down, the Tennessee game was going to be a test run for John Calipari to learn how his team needed to adapt to losing its star big man. I’m not sure how much he learned because of how poorly his team played against the Vols, but one thing is certain—this upcoming three-game home stand is a trifecta of “must win” games as far as the Cats’ NCAA Tournament chances.

Win those three and Kentucky will be back on the right side of the bubble with three games to go.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

Looking Forward to Kentucky Battling Florida for the SEC Lead

When you look at the numbers, it’s hard to make a case for Kentucky winning at Florida in the battle for the SEC lead. And that’s why I am really looking forward to this matchup.

Huh?

Kentucky is a much better team now than it was when league play started on January 10. And the track record of John Calipari suggests the Wildcats will be even better on March 9, when the regular season ends with a rematch against Florida, than they are now. So when you factor in statistical trends working against UK, not to mention the location and the Gators’ edge in experience (all seniors and juniors in the starting lineup), it will be interesting to see how well this young Kentucky team fares under such adverse conditions.

Now, let’s look at some of those numbers.

Kentucky is 2-2 against the three SEC teams that rank 1-2-3 in fewest possessions per game. And the two wins came by only two points at Vandy and in overtime at Texas A&M. Want to guess which team ranks fourth in fewest possessions per game? That’s right—Florida.

Now, let’s look at three-point shooting. Kentucky is 13-2 when it is even or ahead in threes, but only 4-4 when the opponent outscores the Cats on threes (the wins were against LSU, Vandy, Morehead and Marshall). And Vandy is the only SEC team that scores a higher percentage on its points on threes than Florida.

Yet one more element of adversity for Kentucky is the individual matchups. The Gators can put three true guards on the floor in Scottie Wilbukin, Mike Rosario and Kenny Boynton. That could make it hard for UK to maximize its size advantage because a lineup with three “bigs” means one of them will have to defend one of those much faster Florida guards, each of whom has scored at least 17 points in a game this season.

As you can see, there are a lot of reasons to think Florida will win this game. So, if the Wildcats do find a way to prevail, what a statement that would make about this team’s potential for March.

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach

Exciting Times for Kentucky Football

Three months ago, Kentucky football had hit bottom—a 40-0 loss at Vandy, in front of the smallest crowd in the history of Commonwealth Stadium.  Wow, have things changed.  There might be more folks in the stadium for the Blue-White game in April than were there that day last fall.

Pretty soon, we’ll start measuring Mark Stoops on wins and losses, but like the early days of the John Calipari-era, with his recruiting successes, embracing social media, talking confidently, he infused Big Blue Nation with some much-needed hope. The football program is now creating a tremendous buzz and the fans are eating it up.

To enable UK to make that long-awaited move to a higher level in the SEC, the sooner the Cats can win on the field, the better the chance of sustaining this recruiting momentum.  And if the current players are being affected the same way the prospects have been by this new staff, then UK could end up much better than it looks on paper.

First-year players often don’t have the impact in football that basketball players do but there are some guys in the class that I think could do that.  You start with the junior college recruits at defensive end and cornerback, where the Cats have a need for playmakers.  And on offense, the tight end (Steven Borden) should get plenty of catches in the revival of the Air Raid offense.

And I think freshman Ryan Timmons of Franklin County could make a splash right off the bat, because he’s got the size and speed needed for this level, and because he comes out of a system very similar to what Kentucky will be running.

These are truly exciting times for Kentucky football.

 

For more of Tom’s UK sports coverage, go to www.tomleachky.com

—Tom Leach